History Suggests Presidential Elections Deliver Buyer Opportunities
Every presidential election year brings uncertainty and 2024 is proving to be one of the most unsettled election cycles in memory. But history suggests that in the U.S. real estate market, election trends can be more predictable than you might think. Since 1980 the autumn run-up to a presidential election has consistently delivered excellent opportunities for buyers to get off the sideline and turn that uncertainty to their advantage. What does an election year typically mean? In any given year home sales tend to cool with the weather in October and November, dipping by a bit under 10 percent as the calendar moves into these months. But in election years this trend is usually even more pronounced. Going all the way back to 1963, data from Keeping Current Matters shows that the election year home sales drop is significantly steeper, a robust 15 percent, in the months just before ballots are cast.
In June, sellers cut prices at an elevated rate; 20 percent of homes on the market had a price cut as sellers began to get more realistic about a changing market. This trend, combined with climbing inventories, less competition, and lower mortgage rates, may create attractive opportunities for buyers to act this fall. But buying opportunities prior to the election are only half the story. History also suggests a very strong trend in the year following the election.
Post-Election Homes Sales Rise
After 9 of the past 11 presidential elections, including 8 in a row, the following year saw existing home sales rise. (The exceptions were 1981 and 1989.)
Post-Election New Homes Prices Rise As Well
Buyers should be mindful that home prices have also followed this upward trend. Existing and new home prices rose the year after 7 of the last 8 presidential elections. The exception was in 2008, an atypical year during which we experienced the worst global financial crisis since the Great Depression.
Buyers Get Ready
Looking ahead, interest rates will also likely be coming down next year, as the Fed moves closer to the first cuts since the onset of the COVID pandemic. More attractive lending terms may well create more competition for buyers in 2025, as well as higher prices. So while the election’s outcome remains very much in doubt, history does inform strong predictions about where the housing market might be entering 2025. Prospective buyers may do well to explore their options before Americans head to the polls.
$1M+ New England Home Inventories Vary by Market
While listing inventories across the U.S. are climbing, the overall national housing market remains a seller’s market. However, in New England, and particularly above $1,000,000, the numbers tell a more nuanced story.
New England’s overall inventory has remained tighter than the national average with Massachusetts markets mirroring the national picture as favorable to sellers. But buyers seeking $1,000,000-plus properties in every New England location except Massachusetts are experiencing balanced to buyer’s markets. High value home shoppers will find particularly robust inventories in Maine, the Adirondacks, and especially in Vermont. In fact, since last year Vermont has added homes to the market at a higher rate than every other state except Florida—great news for those looking to acquire properties in the Green Mountains.
